Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion
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    Long Range Forecast Discussion December 14-26
    402 EST Mon. Dec. 1, 2017

    Dec. 14-18: Models are in agreement on the flow maintaining a ridge in the West and a trough in the East.

    Temperatures will be below normal in the East at the start of the period then temperatures will moderate. The remainder of the nation will experience above normal temperatures. Lake effect snow will continue. Widespread rain and snow is forecast for the Northwest into the Intermountain West. Showers are forecast from the western Gulf coast toward the Southeast.

    Dec. 17-21: The western ridge is forecast to break down with cyclonic flow across the eastern U.S. this period.

    TEMPERATURES

    Above normal temperatures are forecast from the Pacific Coast into the Midwest. Anomalies of 6-12F are forecast. Below normal temperatures are forecast for the Northeast. Anomalies of 4-6F are forecast.

    PRECIPITATION

    Above normal precipitation is forecast for Washington. The probability of occurrence is 50 percent. Above normal precipitation is also forecast for the lake region. The probability of occurrence is 30 percent. Below normal precipitation is forecast for California, the Four Corners into the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee Valley. The probability of occurrence is 30-50 percent.

    Dec. 22-26: The pattern is forecast to amplify with a ridge over Alaska and a trough over the East. This is depicted by most of the models.

    TEMPERATURES

    Above normal temperatures are forecast from the Mississippi Valley to the Pacific Coast. Anomalies of 4-8F are forecast. Below normal temperatures are forecast for the northern Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. Anomalies of 4-6F are forecast.

    PRECIPITATION

    Below normal precipitation is forecast west of the Divide and the southern Plains. The probability of occurrence is 30-50 percent. Above normal precipitation is forecast for the eastern Gulf Coast and the Southeast. The probability of occurrence is 30 percent.

    Jim Munley, Jr.
    http://www.jimmunleywx.com



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