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    Long Range Forecast Discussion October 22-November 3
    431 EDT Thu. Oct. 19, 2017

    Oct. 22-26: A typhoon approaches Japan and recurves toward the Gulf of Alaska. This will have implications downstream. The result will be building heights in the West and a trough in the East.

    Above normal temperatures are forecast for the West especially in the Southwest, and the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. A southern stream upper will be the focus for heavy rainfall especially if it ends up moving as slow as some models suggest.

    Oct. 25-29: The transition in the pattern will be complete this period with an amplified flow consisting of a ridge in the West and a trough in the East.

    TEMPERATURES

    Above normal temperatures are forecast for the western states and the Northeast. Anomalies of 4-6F are forecast. Below normal temperatures are forecast in the East. Anomalies of 4F are forecast.

    PRECIPITATION

    Below normal precipitation is forecast for the Rockies, the Plains, and the Northeast.

    Oct. 30-Nov. 3: Some of the models are indicating de-amplification of the flow. The ECMWF ensembles and other models maintain an amplified pattern. Positive height anomalies are forecast over Greenland maintaining a trough in the East and a ridge in the West with a trough over the Aleutians.

    TEMPERATURES

    Above normal temperatures are forecast in the West with anomalies greater than 6F. Below normal temperatures are forecast in the East with anomalies of at least 6F.

    PRECIPITATION

    Below normal precipitation is forecast from the Plains to the Pacific Coast, the Southeast, and the lower Mid-Atlantic.

    Jim Munley, Jr.
    http://www.jimmunleywx.com



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