Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical data, and various models such as the ECMWF monthly and weekly, NMME, IMME and the CFSv2, along with observed cases from past such months, data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
In February 2025, below-normal sea surface temperatures weakened in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. All weekly Nino indices reflected this decline, with near-to-below normal values lingering in the Nino-3.4 and Nino-4 regions. Significant coastal warming was evident near South America, with the latest Nino-1+2 value at 1.6°C. However, this warming was shallow (in the upper 50m) and associated with low-level westerly wind anomalies over the eastern Pacific. Below-normal subsurface temperatures also weakened, but negative anomalies persisted at depth in the east Pacific and extended down to 200m in the central Pacific. Tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies continued to indicate La Nina conditions. Low-level wind anomalies remained easterly over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the east-central Pacific. Convection was suppressed around the Date Line and was enhanced near Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected weakening La Nina conditions and a trend toward ENSO-neutral.
The IRI and North American multi-model ensemble predict a transition to ENSO-neutral in the coming season. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer (62% chance in June- August 2025.
The Arctic Oscillation is currently positive and is predicted to slowly trend towards neutral this week and remain near neutral as geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic are currently mostly negative and are predicted to become increasingly mixed over the next two weeks. The North Atlantic Oscillation is currently positive with mostly negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across Greenland, and it is predicted to trend towards neutral over the next two weeks as geopotential height anomalies are predicted to become increasingly mixed across Greenland.
Currently, the Madden Julian Oscillation is in phase six but very weak. The forecasts are for the MJO to remain overall weak and hang out in phases six and seven. Phase six and into phase seven favors troughing in western North America with strong ridging in the eastern states. Therefore, it seems that the MJO will have some influence on North American weather for the next two weeks.
The ECMWF weeklies depict a ridge near the Aleutians, a trough across western North America, and a ridge across the central and eastern states for weeks 1 and 2. A zonal flow with above normal heights across much of North America thereafter. The C3S, and eth Subx all depict above normal heights and a zonal flow across much of North America.
The ECMWF weeklies depict below normal temperatures across the western and central states and above normal temperatures for weeks 1 and 2. Above normal temperatures are expected across the nation thereafter. The Subx depicts above normal temperatures across much of the nation with below normal temperatures across the southern Plains to the Southeast. The C3S depicted above normal temperatures across the country.
TEMPERATURES
Yeloow-2-4°F
Orange-4-6°F
Red-6-8°F or Greater
Mediam Blue 4-6F Below
Dark Blue-6-8F or Great Below
Below-normal temperatures are forecast for northern California, the Northwest, and northern New England. Anomalies are expected to be 2-4°F. Above-normal temperatures are forecast for the eastern Rockies eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast. Anomalies could be as much as 2-4°F in some locations. The remainder of the nation is not expected to exceed normal climatology.
PRECIPITATION
Yellow=-35%
Below
Brown-35-45% Below
Dark
Brown-45-55% Below
Light
Green-30-35% Above
Green-35-45% Above
Dark
Green-45-55%Above
Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the Northwest, the middle and upper Mississippi Valley, the northern Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. The probability of occurrence is nearly 40 percent. Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the northern Rockies, eastern Texas, and into the Southeast. The probability of occurrence is nearly 40 percent. The remainder of the nation is not expected to exceed normal climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.jimmunleywx.com/jimmunleywx
Forecast Verification