1131
AM EDT Fri. Dec. 27, 2024
SYNOPSIS: Neutral ENSO conditions continued in November, with
near-average sea surface temperatures observed across the central and eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean. Similar to the last couple of months, the latest
weekly Nino indices ranged from +0.1°C (Nino-1+2) to -0.4°C. Below-average
subsurface ocean temperatures persisted across the east-central and eastern
equatorial Pacific Ocean. Over the western and central equatorial Pacific,
low-level wind anomalies were easterly and upper-level wind anomalies were
westerly. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and was enhanced over
western Indonesia. The equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive.
Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected neutral conditions.
The IRI plume continue to predict
a weak and a short duration cold episode as indicated by the Nino-3.4 index
values less than -0.5°C. This prediction is also reflected in the latest North
American Multi-Model Ensemble, which continues to predict slightly cooler sea
surface and weak cold episode conditions.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is
neutral. The IOD had been tending negative from mid-October but returned to
neutral values at the start of December.
The Bureau's model forecasts that the IOD will remain neutral throughout
the forecast period to April 2025. This is consistent with 5 of the 6 other
international climate models surveyed and typical IOD behavior at this time of
year.
Currently the MJO is currently in in phase six. The forecasts are for the MJO to slowly make its way into phase 7 and then weaken where no phase is favored. Phase 6 favors ridging in across the US and troughing in the Sea of Okhotsk. Phase 7 favors ridging the Eastern states and troughing in the Western states.
Weekly Animation
Global Weekly Animation
Observed Sea Surface Temperatures
Tropical Anomalies Surface Temperatures
Nino Regions
Equatorial
Jim Munley, Jr.http://www.www.jimmunlwywx.com/